Frequently asked questions
About OptPoP, POP, P50, and pricing
What is OptPoP?
OptPoP is an options probability and risk analyzer. Build a position from one to six legs (single options, verticals, iron condors, straddles/strangles, calendars, diagonals, or a custom combination), and OptPoP shows the payoff diagram, the probability the position is profitable (POP), the probability it reaches 50% of max profit early (P50), probability of touching each breakeven, the full Greeks, and concrete suggestions for improving the trade. See how it works for the math behind each number.
What does POP mean?
POP stands for "probability of profit" — the model's estimate of the chance the position is profitable at expiration, given the volatility you supply (or the market implies). It's computed as an exact lognormal probability, not a rough approximation.
What does P50 mean?
P50 is the probability of the position reaching 50% of its maximum possible profit at any point before expiration — a common target for closing winning trades early rather than holding to expiry. It's estimated with a Monte Carlo simulation that re-prices every leg daily along thousands of simulated price paths.
Is OptPoP free?
Yes — single-leg option calculations (payoff chart, POP, P50, probability of touch, Greeks, and trade-improvement suggestions) are free, supported by ads. Multi-leg strategies and the full analysis suite (what-if scenarios, strategy comparison, the P&L heatmap, backtesting, and broker-portfolio import) require an OptPoP Pro subscription. Every account also gets a free 30-day trial of full Pro access, starting at sign-up.
Do I need an account?
No — single-leg calculations work with no registration at all. An account (free, passwordless — sign in with a one-time email link) is only needed for Pro features, cross-device sync of your trade journal, and importing positions from a connected brokerage.
Where does the market data come from?
OptPoP works fully in manual mode with no data connection — you type in price, implied volatility, and premiums yourself. If you connect a free Tradier API token, expiration and strike pickers pull the real option chain and auto-fill spot price, days to expiration, implied volatility, and the bid/ask midpoint premium. The token is stored only on your device, and requests go directly from your device to Tradier.
Can I import my existing broker positions?
Signed-in Pro users can pull option positions directly from a connected Tradier or Alpaca account, or — via SnapTrade — from Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, Tastytrade, Interactive Brokers, and others, and load any position straight into the analyzer with your real entry prices. Every connection is read-only: OptPoP never places, modifies, or cancels an order.
How accurate are the probabilities?
They're exactly as accurate as their assumptions: Black–Scholes (lognormal) price dynamics at the volatility you provide or the market implies. Real markets have skew, volatility clustering, and jumps that this model doesn't capture, so treat every number as a model estimate for comparing strategies, not a guarantee of what will happen. See how it works for details on each calculation.
Is this investment advice?
No. OptPoP is an educational and analytical tool. Nothing it shows is a recommendation, and nothing in it is an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. See the Terms of Use.
What is the trade journal?
A local-first log of any position you build: entry price, thesis, and tags, with the ability to close a trade later (or mark it expired) to track realized P&L, win rate, expectancy, and performance broken down by strategy or tag. It works fully offline and stores data on your device by default, with optional sync to your account when signed in.
Does OptPoP work on my phone?
Yes — it's an installable Progressive Web App that runs full-screen and works offline once installed, on both iOS (via Safari's "Add to Home Screen") and Android (via Chrome's "Install app").
How do I cancel Pro?
Tap the Pro ✓ badge in the app and choose Manage subscription to open billing management directly. See the Refund Policy for details.
Still have a question?
Email mike@optpop.com.
Pera Pera, Inc. · OptPoP